今日開盤，國（guó）內黑色係一改昨（zuó）日強勢上攻的態勢，除焦煤期貨主力合約繼續飄紅，其它品（pǐn）種齊刷刷（shuā）掉頭向下調整。與此同時（shí），現貨（huò）市場漲幅明顯收窄，表現敏感的鋼坯及帶鋼價格止漲回落。雖然“淡水河穀礦山事件”在節後持續發酵（jiào）並達到階段（duàn）性高（gāo）潮（cháo），但市場被過度激發過後，持續性動力正在呈現（xiàn）衰減的信號，由此引發的（de）成本支撐利好經（jīng）過春節前後（hòu）的（de）拔高以及消化也在減弱。
Today's opening, the domestic black department changed from yesterday's strong upward trend, except coking coal futures main contract continues to flush red, other varieties brush around and adjust downward. At the same time, the spot market has narrowed down significantly, and the price of billet and strip, which are sensitive to performance, has stopped rising and fallen. Although the "Valley Mine Event" continued to ferment after the festival and reached a stage climax, after the market was over-stimulated, the sustained power is showing a signal of attenuation, resulting in the cost support benefits after the Spring Festival and digestion are also weakening. 首先，表現在長袖善舞的資本市場方麵，多頭開始獲利快跑，這（zhè）一信號在昨晚夜盤已（yǐ）經開始顯現。另外，從技術麵來看期貨市場（chǎng）在大幅拉升之後，在沒有後續的重（chóng）大利好消（xiāo）息炒作以及基本麵支撐的條件下，也存在回吐調整的訴求。
First of all, in the long-sleeved capital market, the Bulls began to make profits, and this signal began to appear last night. In addition, from a technical point of view, the futures market after a sharp rise, in the absence of follow-up major good news speculation and fundamentals support, there are also calls for adjustment.

從（cóng）現貨市場來看，節後尚處在啟動前的準備階段。目前大部分商家仍未返市，下遊施工企業也尚未大麵積（jī）返工，因此雖然鋼廠價格以及商家報（bào）價在上漲，但整體市（shì）場成交表現卻較為冷清。雖然個別地區昨日存在節後補貨的情況，但多以按需求（qiú）采購為主，市場的真正啟（qǐ）動仍需耐（nài）心等待。
From the spot market point of view, after the festival is still in the preparatory stage before the start. At present, most businessmen have not returned to the market, and downstream construction enterprises have not yet returned to work on a large scale. Therefore, although the prices of steel mills and quotations of businessmen are rising, the overall market performance is relatively cold. Although there were replenishments after the festival in some areas yesterday, most of them were purchased on demand, and the real start of the market still needs to be patiently awaited.

那麽，在期（qī）貨市場（chǎng）衝高回落後鋼（gāng）市行情走向如何？
So, what is the trend of the steel market after the futures market surges back to backwardness?

筆者認（rèn）為，後期市（shì）場將更多（duō）的回歸到基本麵，節後市場累庫情況、終端需求啟動速度等等是決定價格（gé）起落的主要因素。
The author believes that the market will return to the basic level in the later period. After the festival, the accumulation of the market, the starting speed of terminal demand and so on are the main factors that determine the price fluctuation.

在節前（qián）冬儲意願不高的情況下，主（zhǔ）動大麵積囤貨的不多。同時，節假日期間鋼廠開工率穩中略有下降，累庫情況與去年基本相當，部分地區甚至（zhì）略（luè）低於去年，但檢修的鋼廠多集中（zhōng）於短流程的企業，長流程的鋼廠基本保持正常生產，隨著節後高爐開工（gōng）率的回升（shēng），整體庫存仍有上升空間。
In the case of low willingness to store in the winter before the festival, there is not much active large-scale stockpiling. At the same time, during the holidays, the start-up rate of steel mills declined slightly, and the accumulative storage situation was basically the same as last year. Some areas were even slightly lower than last year. However, most of the steel mills overhauled were concentrated in short-process enterprises, while the long-process steel mills basically maintained normal production. With the rebound of blast furnace start-up rate after the holidays, the overall stock still had room to rise.

消息麵上，中美貿（mào）易談（tán）判將於本（běn）周（zhōu）2月14-15日在京進行，談判進展對市場的影響不可忽視。
On the news side, the Sino-US trade negotiations will be held in Beijing from February 14 to 15 this week. The impact of the progress of the negotiations on the market can not be ignored.

總體（tǐ）來（lái）看，雖然開門紅過後市場存在調整的需求，空間或相對有（yǒu）限。
Overall, although there is a need to adjust after the opening of the market, the space is relatively limited.

價格方麵，據監測數據顯示（shì），今日，國內（nèi）重點城市Ф25mm三級螺紋鋼平均價格3956元(噸價，下同)，較昨日漲（zhǎng）22元；國內重點城市Ф6.5mm高線平（píng）均價格為4150元，較昨（zuó）日漲22元；國內重點城市5.5mm熱軋卷板平均價格為3858元，較昨（zuó）日漲34元；國內重（chóng）點中心城市1.0mm冷板的平均價格為4340元，較昨日漲25元；國內（nèi）重點城市20mm中板平均（jun1）價格3965元（yuán），較（jiào）昨日漲27元（yuán）。
In terms of price, according to monitoring data, the average price of 25mm threaded steel in key cities in China today is 3956 yuan (ton price, the same below), up 22 yuan from yesterday; the average price of 6.5mm high-speed line in key cities in China is 4150 yuan, up 22 yuan from yesterday; the average price of 5.5mm hot-rolled coil plate in key cities in China is 3858 yuan, up 34 yuan from yesterday; and the average price of 1.0mm cold plate in key cities in China is 34 yuan higher than yesterday. The price is 4340 yuan, up 25 yuan from yesterday; the average price of 20mm medium plate in key cities in China is 3965 yuan, up 27 yuan from yesterday.

原料方（fāng）麵（miàn），今日，唐山地區昌黎150*150普（pǔ）碳方坯3480元，較昨日跌40；京唐港61.5%品位澳大利亞（yà）PB鐵礦粉價格為677元，較昨日漲12元；唐山地區準一級冶金焦含稅到廠價格2050元，較昨日持平。
In terms of raw materials, today, Changli 150*150 carbon square billet in Tangshan area is 3480 yuan, 40 yuan lower than yesterday; Beijing-Tanggang 61.5% grade Australian PB iron ore powder price is 677 yuan, 12 yuan higher than yesterday; Tangshan quasi-primary metallurgical coke with tax to plant price is 2050 yuan, which is flat compared with yesterday.