今日開盤，國（guó）內黑色係一改昨（zuó）日強勢（shì）上攻的態勢，除焦煤期貨主力合約繼續飄紅，其它品種齊（qí）刷刷掉（diào）頭向下調整（zhěng）。與此同時，現貨市場（chǎng）漲幅明顯收窄，表現（xiàn）敏（mǐn）感的鋼坯及帶鋼價格止漲回落。雖然“淡水河穀礦山事件”在節後持續發酵並達到（dào）階段性高潮，但（dàn）市場被過度激發過後，持續（xù）性動力正在呈（chéng）現衰減的信號，由此引（yǐn）發的成本支撐利好經過春節前後的拔高（gāo）以（yǐ）及消化也在減弱。
Today's opening, the domestic black department changed from yesterday's strong upward trend, except coking coal futures main contract continues to flush red, other varieties brush around and adjust downward. At the same time, the spot market has narrowed down significantly, and the price of billet and strip, which are sensitive to performance, has stopped rising and fallen. Although the "Valley Mine Event" continued to ferment after the festival and reached a stage climax, after the market was over-stimulated, the sustained power is showing a signal of attenuation, resulting in the cost support benefits after the Spring Festival and digestion are also weakening. 首先，表現在長袖善舞的資本市場方麵，多頭開始獲利快跑，這一信號在昨（zuó）晚夜盤已經開始顯現。另外（wài），從技術麵來看期貨市場在大幅拉升之後（hòu），在沒有後續的重大利好消（xiāo）息炒作以及基本麵支撐的（de）條件下，也存在回吐調整的訴求。
First of all, in the long-sleeved capital market, the Bulls began to make profits, and this signal began to appear last night. In addition, from a technical point of view, the futures market after a sharp rise, in the absence of follow-up major good news speculation and fundamentals support, there are also calls for adjustment.

從現貨市場來看，節後尚處在啟動前（qián）的準備階段。目前大部（bù）分商家仍（réng）未返市，下遊施工企業也尚未大麵積返工，因此雖然鋼廠價格以及商（shāng）家報價（jià）在（zài）上漲，但整體（tǐ）市場成交表現卻較為冷清。雖然個別地區昨日存在節後補貨的情況，但多以（yǐ）按需求采購為主，市場的真正啟動仍需耐心（xīn）等待。
From the spot market point of view, after the festival is still in the preparatory stage before the start. At present, most businessmen have not returned to the market, and downstream construction enterprises have not yet returned to work on a large scale. Therefore, although the prices of steel mills and quotations of businessmen are rising, the overall market performance is relatively cold. Although there were replenishments after the festival in some areas yesterday, most of them were purchased on demand, and the real start of the market still needs to be patiently awaited.

那麽，在期貨市場衝高回落（luò）後鋼市行情走向如何？
So, what is the trend of the steel market after the futures market surges back to backwardness?

筆（bǐ）者認為，後期市場（chǎng）將更多的（de）回歸到基本麵，節後（hòu）市場累庫（kù）情況、終端需求啟動速度等（děng）等（děng）是決定（dìng）價格起落的（de）主要因素（sù）。
The author believes that the market will return to the basic level in the later period. After the festival, the accumulation of the market, the starting speed of terminal demand and so on are the main factors that determine the price fluctuation.

在節前冬（dōng）儲意願不高的（de）情況（kuàng）下，主動大麵積（jī）囤貨的不多。同時，節假日期間鋼廠開工率穩（wěn）中略有下降，累庫情況與去年基本相當，部分地區甚至略低於去年，但檢修的鋼（gāng）廠多集中於短（duǎn）流程的企業，長流程的鋼廠（chǎng）基（jī）本保持（chí）正常生產（chǎn），隨著節後高爐開（kāi）工率的回升（shēng），整體庫存仍有上升空間。
In the case of low willingness to store in the winter before the festival, there is not much active large-scale stockpiling. At the same time, during the holidays, the start-up rate of steel mills declined slightly, and the accumulative storage situation was basically the same as last year. Some areas were even slightly lower than last year. However, most of the steel mills overhauled were concentrated in short-process enterprises, while the long-process steel mills basically maintained normal production. With the rebound of blast furnace start-up rate after the holidays, the overall stock still had room to rise.

消息麵上，中美貿易談判將於本周2月14-15日在京進行，談判進展對市場的影響不可忽視。
On the news side, the Sino-US trade negotiations will be held in Beijing from February 14 to 15 this week. The impact of the progress of the negotiations on the market can not be ignored.

總體來看，雖然開門紅過後市場存在調整的需求，空間或相對（duì）有限。
Overall, although there is a need to adjust after the opening of the market, the space is relatively limited.

價（jià）格方麵，據監測數據（jù）顯示，今日，國內重點城市Ф25mm三級螺紋鋼平均價格3956元(噸價，下（xià）同)，較昨（zuó）日漲22元；國內重點（diǎn）城市Ф6.5mm高線平均價格為4150元，較昨日漲22元（yuán）；國內重點城市（shì）5.5mm熱軋卷板平均價（jià）格為3858元，較昨日漲（zhǎng）34元；國內重點中心（xīn）城市1.0mm冷板的平均價格為4340元，較昨日漲25元；國內重點城（chéng）市20mm中板平均價格3965元，較昨日漲（zhǎng）27元。
In terms of price, according to monitoring data, the average price of 25mm threaded steel in key cities in China today is 3956 yuan (ton price, the same below), up 22 yuan from yesterday; the average price of 6.5mm high-speed line in key cities in China is 4150 yuan, up 22 yuan from yesterday; the average price of 5.5mm hot-rolled coil plate in key cities in China is 3858 yuan, up 34 yuan from yesterday; and the average price of 1.0mm cold plate in key cities in China is 34 yuan higher than yesterday. The price is 4340 yuan, up 25 yuan from yesterday; the average price of 20mm medium plate in key cities in China is 3965 yuan, up 27 yuan from yesterday.

原料方麵，今日，唐山地區昌黎150*150普碳（tàn）方坯（pī）3480元，較昨（zuó）日跌40；京唐（táng）港61.5%品（pǐn）位澳（ào）大利亞PB鐵礦粉價格為677元，較昨日漲12元；唐山地區準一級冶金焦含（hán）稅到廠價格2050元，較（jiào）昨日持平。
In terms of raw materials, today, Changli 150*150 carbon square billet in Tangshan area is 3480 yuan, 40 yuan lower than yesterday; Beijing-Tanggang 61.5% grade Australian PB iron ore powder price is 677 yuan, 12 yuan higher than yesterday; Tangshan quasi-primary metallurgical coke with tax to plant price is 2050 yuan, which is flat compared with yesterday.